Analysts say Mac sales fall 40% as post-pandemic PC sales slump continues

Analysts at IDC have released data on global PC sales for the first quarter of 2023, and the news is not good news for PC makers. IDC reports that all companies combined shipped 56.9 million PCs in the first quarter of 2023, down 29 percent from the first quarter of 2022, when demand for new PCs was just beginning to decline in the pandemic era. Apple Mac sales are often immune to this sort of fluctuation, but IDC says the company was hit particularly hard this quarter, with shipments falling from 6.9 million units in the first quarter of 2022 to 4.1 million units in the first quarter of 2023. That’s a 40.5 percent drop, more than Lenovo, HP, Dell, Asus and all companies included in the “Others”list in the IDC data.

IDC notes that PC demand until 2022 was still higher than before the pandemic, despite falling from highs seen in 2020 and 2021. But the first quarter of 2023 shows “at least a temporary return to pre-COVID patterns.”This model, for those who don’t remember, was one of a long, slow decline as people replaced PCs less often and did more of their computing on smartphones and other devices. IDC reports that PC makers shipped 60.6 million PCs in the first quarter of 2018 and 59.2 million PCs in the first quarter of 2019.

IDC data should be taken with a grain of salt; these are sales guesses based on available data. Apple no longer publishes Mac sales data in its financial statements, but Mac revenue figures usually don’t quite line up with IDC sales figures, although the overall trends are similar.

Mac revenue, according to Apple, rose 25 percent year-over-year back in September (PDF), despite the decline in sales that affected all other PC makers at the time (IDC said Mac unit sales rose 40 percent). But Mac revenue fell 29% quarter-on-quarter last quarter, according to Apple, and it looks like the quarter ending in March might not be much better, despite the introduction of the new M2 Mac mini and Macbook Pro. That said, MacBook Pros are among the most expensive Macs Apple sells, which could help the company’s revenue figures look a little better than IDC’s sales estimate suggests.

IDC suggests the PC industry could recover “by the end of the year”into 2024 as consumers and businesses begin to replace pandemic-era purchases and as the transition to Windows 11 continues, though the economic downturn could extend the downturn.